When three vulnerabilities meet
For a company, a more expensive credit, a rising energy bill, and a nervous market can be enough to derail a project. For a family, this quickly translates into higher prices, heavier repayments, and less margin at the end of the month. The real issue is not a single bubble. It is the possibility that several shocks respond to and reinforce each other.
In this story, non-bank finance is as important as the stock market. European regulators are seeing a rise in risks associated with non-bank intermediaries, while energy prices remain sensitive to conflicts in the Middle East. In France, public debt reached 115.6% of GDP at the end of 2025, and the deficit was 5.1% of GDP. When growth slows down, this combination leaves little room for improvisation.
Private credit, useful for some, risky for all
Private credit is simply credit granted by funds rather than banks. It is mainly used by medium-sized companies or those that banks deem too risky for their balance sheets. The market has grown very quickly: the BIS estimates that it now exceeds 2 trillion dollars worldwide. In Europe, private credit funds had around 0.1 trillion euros of assets under management in March 2025, far behind the United States, but with rapid growth.
This financing serves a real purpose. It provides a lifeline to SMEs or mid-caps that do not always have access to bond markets. It also benefits investors looking for returns. However, the downside is clear: loans are long, illiquid, and opaque. The BIS warns that the arrival of individual savers through more accessible vehicles can exacerbate tension in case of a downturn. ESMA, meanwhile, speaks of a small but more interconnected and opaque universe in Europe. In this scenario, the winners are the managers who collect fees and the investors who receive returns. The potential losers are the most fragile companies and shareholders if exits accelerate.
AI is not just a promise, it’s also a bill
Another source of tension comes from artificial intelligence. The issue is not only innovation but also the scale of investments and how to finance them. The International Energy Agency estimates that data centers consumed around 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of global consumption. It predicts around 945 TWh in 2030 in its central scenario, with a rapid but still limited increase in the global electricity system.
For now, AI supports activity. The IEA notes that major technology companies continue to increase their spending. The IMF goes further: it sees private investment in AI as a driver of growth but also a classic area of excessive optimism. Its message is simple. Markets like technological disruptions. They like less the corrections that follow when profits are slow to materialize. The IMF also points out that the history of major innovations often involves a mix of enthusiasm and disillusionment.
The oil shock that goes beyond energy
The third stage of the rocket is the Middle East. In March 2026, the IEA spoke of the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market, after the almost complete halt of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Member countries decided to release 400 million barrels from their emergency reserves. In 2025, about 20 million barrels of crude oil and oil products passed through this passage every day, accounting for almost a quarter of the world’s oil maritime trade.
The shock affects not only gasoline. The IEA also highlights pressure on diesel, kerosene, LPG, and liquefied natural gas. When these prices rise, the bill goes up for transportation, agriculture, industry, and ultimately households. This complicates the task of central banks. They must monitor inflation but also avoid further dampening activity. The IMF also warns that major geopolitical shocks can lower stocks and increase sovereign risk premiums.
Why France cannot remain a spectator
France enters this sequence with limited margins. By the end of 2025, the state had a public debt of 115.6% of GDP. The Bank of France also notes that the spread between French and German bonds remained higher in June 2025 than before the dissolution of 2024. In other words, France is borrowing in a more costly and monitored environment than before. If the external shock persists, the cost of public financing could increase further.
Companies are not all in the same boat. The Bank of France indicates that in December 2025, the average cost of new financing for non-financial companies was 3.52%, with a rate of 3.54% for bank loans. SMEs remain more exposed to interest rate increases than large companies because they have fewer alternatives. In France, the non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio reached 75.7% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to 53.3% in the eurozone. It’s not a collapse. It’s a fundamental fragility.
What to watch out for now
The political debate that opens up is twofold. On one hand, advocates for financial easing argue that private credit and AI finance investment, startups, and future growth. ESMA also acknowledges this: private finance can support expanding companies, especially in tech, defense, health, and green transition. On the other hand, the IMF, the BIS, and European supervisors emphasize opacity, leverage effects, and risk correlations. The choice is not between regulating and doing nothing. It is between letting the system grow without safeguards or setting limits before stress sets in.
The next concrete appointment to follow is: ESMA is awaiting contributions until May 31, 2026 on private credit ratings, before possible regulatory adjustments in the second quarter of 2026. In other words, the battle over transparency, liquidity, and limits to non-bank financing is just beginning. If a larger shock arrives, the question will not be just about who foresaw the crisis. It will mainly be about who will pay the cost.
