France must choose between its illusions or its power

In France, the capacity priorities of the next five years will need to realistically define the role that the country intends to play in Europe's security. France is the most ambitious military power on the continent. Paradoxically, it risks missing the most decisive strategic meeting since the end of the Cold War, not due to lack of capabilities, but because of a growing mismatch between its multiple ambitions and the means employed.

This gap between proclaimed ambition and actual positioning is causing increasing skepticism among European partners. The cooperation on the Future Air Combat System (SCAF) seems seriously compromised, raising questions about the trajectory of this program initiated by Macron’s speech at the Sorbonne in September 2017 to revitalize European defense.

The failure of the SCAF reflects deeper issues in European defense autonomy and stability. With the new uncertainties stemming from American disengagement under Trump’s return in 2025, the financial, industrial, and operational response to these new needs will shape Europe’s defense architecture for decades to come.

The illusion of a grander role in Europe while looking elsewhere is seen as a missed opportunity for France. By not aligning its defense planning with the collective needs clearly expressed by partners, France risks being sidelined in important security frameworks. The focus on national autonomy undermines cooperation on essential combat capabilities needed for the future.

The growing disconnection between France and its allies is evident in the support provided to Ukraine since 2022. France's modest contributions compared to countries like the UK, Germany, and Poland raise concerns about its commitment to European security.

The shift in Europe's regional stability highlights the need for France to align its defense priorities with continental needs. Failure to do so may lead to marginalization in a rapidly evolving security environment controlled by leading partners. The upcoming military budget update will be a pivotal test for France’s commitment to European defense and its influence within the EU.

The debate over France’s defense priorities will determine its role in shaping Europe’s security architecture. By realigning its capacities with the collective needs of its allies, France can assert its leadership and credibility in European defense. Failure to do so risks isolating France in a security framework driven by others.

The next defense capacity debate in France will be crucial and will test its ability to align with the collective needs of its allies. Upholding its role as a major European power will require revising its defense priorities to meet the evolving security landscape driven by its partners.