Middle East at War – In this sixth part of our decryption series, Younes Abouyoub, a doctor in political sociology and diplomat, describes the current conflict as a geopolitical earthquake whose shockwaves could profoundly shake the Arab world.
LCDL: What future does this war outline for the Arab world?
Younes Abouyoub: This war is not just another conflict in a region saturated with violence; it is a geopolitical schism whose repercussions will be felt for decades. The cards are being reshuffled with a brutality that forces every capital to rethink its alliances, enmities, and, even more profoundly, its very reason for existence.
The post-war Arab world will not resemble the world before. Formerly unthinkable reconciliations become possible, while strong alliances crumble. Ultimately, this process could lead to a profound reconfiguration of the regional landscape, marked by more instability than clarity.
The current conflict is like an acid dissolving old loyalties and forging new ones, often counterintuitive.
History weighs heavily here. The year 1919 remains an open wound in the memory of the Arab world: the fall of the Ottoman Empire was not a liberation but the opening of a void where colonial powers redesigned the region according to their interests, sowing the seeds of a century of conflicts and fractures.
Today, as bombs rain down on Tehran, the potential fall of the Iranian state could produce a shock of comparable magnitude. Not a calming, but the opening of a strategic void where regional and international powers would rush in.
> Also read: Middle East at War. “In the Strait of Hormuz, Washington is facing its own Suez Crisis,” Younes Abouyoub
Why is Iran a central player in the regional balance?
Although not Arab, Iran has established itself as a key pillar of the Middle East balance over the decades.
Through political, military, and ideological alliances — from the Levant to the Gulf — the Islamic Republic has contributed to structuring a de facto regional order based on stabilizing power dynamics through deterrence. This balance is neither peaceful nor consensual, but it imposes limits on the ambitions of each actor.
The sudden disappearance of this pillar would not create a space of freedom but a major strategic void; a scenario whose regional history has already shown the violence and lasting effects. Iran, twice the size of France, with nearly 90 million people, rich in hydrocarbons, would become a territory sparking the appetites of competing powers.
In this void, regional and international rivalries would intensify. Erdogan’s Turkey, with its neo-Ottoman ambitions, would see an opportunity to expand its influence northward to Iraq and Syria, as well as towards Iranian Azerbaijan.
Israel, which views weakening Iran as a major strategic objective, would find itself in a position of regional dominance without a real counterbalance. What is held together today by an unstable balance would then shift into an open logic of confrontation and power projection.
> Also read: Middle East at War: “Donald Trump’s ultimatum could tip the conflict to a point of no return,” Younes Abouyoub
What shifts would such a collapse generate?
The effects would be immediately felt in the most fragile states, where Iranian influence currently acts as a balancing factor, albeit contested.
In Iraq, the disappearance of Iranian support would disrupt the ecosystem of Shiite militias, depriving them of coordination and resources. Their fragmentation could lead to internal conflicts or direct confrontation with the central state, paving the way for an unprecedented civil war.
In Lebanon, the deterrent balance imposed by Hezbollah would collapse. Long-standing tensions among factions — Christians, Sunnis, Druze — could then erupt, in a already weakened country, with the risk of a return to a generalized civil war.
The illusion that the…
[Continue reading on ‘Le Monde’ website]
Context: The article discusses the geopolitical consequences of a potential collapse of the Iranian state on the Middle East region.
Fact Check: The information presented in this article is based on the analysis and commentary provided by Younes Abouyoub, a doctor in political sociology and diplomat.
