In 2026, Japan will update its national security strategy, last revised in December 2022. The regional security context has significantly deteriorated for Tokyo, facing a triple authoritarian and nuclear front with deepening solidarity, raising concerns about a potentially dramatic coordination implications for the archipelago.
Simultaneously, the underlying trend of the United States focusing increasingly on narrowly defined national interests is growing. The transactional and cynical approach of the second Trump administration is pushing Tokyo to accelerate investments in defense capabilities to enhance its contribution to the security alliance with the U.S. and rebalance roles within it.
This effort is coupled with resolute steps to diversify security partners and maintain conditions for a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Beyond its self-defense, Japan has become a significant security provider in Asia and an essential strategic partner, including for Europeans.
The Threat of Unprecedented Conflict
Tensions are escalating between Japan and its Chinese, Russian, and North Korean neighbors, with the war in Ukraine reigniting fears of an open conflict in Asia.
China, the number one risk
China, posing a threat to the archipelago’s territorial integrity, is Japan’s top security risk. Chinese vessels have been patrolling the waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea since 2012, now almost permanently. Beijing seeks to challenge Japan’s control over these islands it claims. These incursions, led by coast guard or fishermen rather than the Chinese military, employ a “grey zone tactic,” challenging to control without risking military escalation. This erosion strategy of the status quo includes regular naval and aerial intrusions, exerting constant pressure on the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF).
While in 2000, the defense budgets of Japan and China were similar, by 2020, Beijing was investing four times more than Tokyo in defense, fundamentally altering the balance of power and Japan’s deterrence capability. The 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) labels China a “strategic challenge of unprecedented scale.”
In 2024 and 2025, the intensified Chinese naval and aerial activities in the Pacific were accompanied by increased passages through the Soya, Tsugaru, Miyako, and Tsushima straits around the Japanese archipelago. Provocations multiplied, including intrusions into Japanese waters and airspace in August 2024, the first Chinese aircraft carrier passage between Yonaguni and Iriomote, and the deployment of two Chinese carriers simultaneously in the Pacific in June 2025.
[…] [Read the full article in the April-May 2026 issue of Questions Internationales]
