French Military Program Law Update Presented This Week

The bill to update the military program law will be presented on Wednesday at the Council of Ministers. The format of the armed forces remains unchanged.

Continued Compromises

This update is clearly only a recapitalization of the 2024-2030 Military Program Law, which could not meet all the capacity objectives of the armed forces given the budget constraints. It should be noted that since 2022, the military had requested an envelope of 430 billion euros to meet all their capacity needs, while the Ministry of Finance, more frugal, advocated for 377 billion. Emmanuel Macron then decided (400 billion in budget credits plus 13 billion in extra-budgetary revenue).

With this update, defense budget credits are expected to reach 436 billion euros (excluding extra-budgetary revenue). This significant financial allocation has necessitated compromises. These have been very unfavorable to the spatial domain, in particular, and unfavorable to the army, which is experiencing losses in armored vehicles (-50 Serval and -180 VBAE by 2030).

Unchanged Formats

Upon arrival at the Élysée in 2017, the military budget stood at 32 billion euros. This year, it should reach 57.1 billion if fully executed, then 63.3 billion in 2027, the year of Emmanuel Macron’s exit from the Élysée (76.3 billion in 2030, unless the next president wishes otherwise). Despite all these credits, the formats of the armed forces, set by the 2013 White Paper, remain the same: 225 Rafale, including 185 for the Air Force, 15 first-rank frigates, an aircraft carrier, three helicopter carriers, six Barracuda nuclear attack submarines, 200 Leclerc tanks, and 67 Tiger attack helicopters. It was a different world, that of happy globalization and a certain denial despite the crises and tensions that were beginning to emerge across the globe, and the rise of increasingly uninhibited powerful states.

Additional 36 Billion: For What?

According to the bill, the update of the Military Program Law will allow “to accelerate the modernization movement of our capacities and the adaptability of our capacity model to engage our armed forces in high-intensity operations.” In terms of the budget, these “overruns” will achieve a defense effort of 2.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030. With this additional rearmament effort, the military budget will have doubled between 2017 and 2027, increasing from 32 billion to nearly 64 billion.

Of the 36 billion, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu wants to invest an additional 8.5 billion euros between 2026 and 2030 in various types of munitions: from telecommunications munitions to cruise missiles, including Exocet, 155mm shells, and anti-tank missiles. Between 2024 and 2030, the stocks of different munitions will significantly increase: +400% for telecommunications munitions, +240% for AASM guided bomb (Safran), +230% for MU90 torpedoes (Naval Group and Leonardo) and F21 (Naval Group), +190% for 155mm shells (KNDS France), +100% for Exocet sea-to-sea missiles (MBDA), +85% for Scalp and MdCN missiles (MBDA). The increase in munitions deliveries will continue over the 2031-2035 period.