Despite the conflict in the Middle East, a study by Allianz Trade reveals that 75% of global exporters anticipate positive growth in 2026.
The geopolitical uncertainty, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, only moderately affects the confidence of exporting companies. According to the latest edition of the Global Survey published on Wednesday by Allianz Trade, three-quarters of exporters (75%) expect their business to grow in 2026. This survey, conducted in February and March 2026 among 6,000 companies in 13 major countries, shows significant resilience compared to the tariff shock of 2025 which had reduced forecasts by 40 points.
However, this optimism is tempered with caution. “This optimism, however, remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict continues,” warns Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade. She notes that confidence has already decreased by more than 10 points in Vietnam, the United States, and Spain, and by 9 points in China.
The geopolitical risk, a new major concern
The conflict has reshaped the hierarchy of threats for businesses. Geopolitical and political risks are now considered the main global threat by 65% of respondents, surpassing supply chain complexity, which was the top concern in 2025. Supply chain challenges, such as supplier failures and raw material shortages, rank second at 57%.
Despite the displayed confidence, the current context is tightening trade financing conditions. Payment terms are getting longer: the proportion of companies paid in over 70 days has increased from 15% to 24% since the beginning of the conflict. At the same time, the risk of defaults has worsened, with 40% of companies expecting an increase in this risk (+6 points). The most exposed sectors are the pharmaceutical industry, construction, and information technology.
French companies’ agility in the face of uncertainty
French companies are even more optimistic than average, with nearly 8 out of 10 anticipating an increase in their export turnover in 2026. Among them, 39% expect moderate growth (+2% to +5%) and 32.5% anticipate stronger growth (+5% to +10%).
In this environment, French exporters are adapting their strategies. They now favor politically stable regions (56%) and rely on local partnerships to overcome challenges (53%). China remains strategically important: 69% of French companies will maintain a stable presence in the country in 2026, and 23% even plan to increase it.
“The French exporting companies are facing unprecedented challenges in their supply chains, and 67% of the surveyed companies identify political and geopolitical risks as the primary threat, an increase of +37 points compared to 2025,” analyzes Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Sector Research at Allianz Trade. “Despite these obstacles, French companies are reacting with agility: 63% have turned to new markets, 58% have diversified their suppliers, and 58% have rerouted their products through third-party markets.”
A reconfiguration of global supply chains
At the global level, companies have massively responded since the 2025 trade war. The most common adaptation strategies include building stocks (64%), diversifying into new markets (64%), and using new suppliers (63%).
This reconfiguration has shifted the centers of gravity. The appeal of the United States as a growth market has decreased (only 13%), while Europe and Asia are now preferred. The study highlights a wave of interest in new free trade agreements that 93% of companies plan to use for their expansion. “However, the full potential of these agreements remains limited: non-tariff barriers, especially licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the main obstacle,” concludes Ana Boata, Director of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.
The comprehensive study also details the impact of tariffs, the evolving investment priorities, and the adoption of artificial intelligence. Allianz Trade is the world leader in credit insurance and a recognized specialist in surety and political risk.
