On March 16 at one minute past midnight, diesel jumped by 2 dirhams at the pump in Morocco. Gasoline followed at 1.44 dirhams. Three weeks after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the bill from the Iranian-American conflict was directly affecting gas stations in a country that produces virtually nothing of what it burns.
It’s not a surprise. It’s a confirmation. In March, a study by the specialized magazine Energy World analyzed 75 global economies according to their exposure to an energy crisis. Morocco scored 74.6 out of 100, ranking fourth globally, behind Singapore, Turkmenistan, and Hong Kong. 90.1% of its energy mix depends on fossil fuels. Domestic production covers 6% of the demand. The remaining 94% comes from abroad, with 95% of natural gas imports passing through routes, including the main bottleneck, the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed for three days starting from February 28.
“12 to 15 billion dollars per year”
“Morocco, not producing oil or gas, remains exposed to external shocks. These first affect household purchasing power, followed by the competitiveness of companies through increased production costs,” summarized economist Khalid Achiban. The national energy bill ranges between 12 and 15 billion dollars per year, as highlighted by Mostapha Labrak, an expert in hydrocarbons. This amount has been increasing naturally since Brent surpassed $116 per barrel, 20% higher than the evening of February 28.
What worsens Morocco’s position is that the crisis is not just hitting the pump. As the world’s largest producer of phosphates through the OCP group, the Kingdom depends on sulfur to produce phosphoric acid, a fundamental step in transforming raw phosphate into marketable fertilizers, and 44% of global sulfur exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy and agriculture: the double vulnerability of the Maghreb in the face of the Hormuz crisis is particularly acute in Morocco.
“Stocks running until the end of June”
The country has reserves of diesel for 51 days, gasoline for 55 days, and secure supplies of coal and gas until the end of June. Achiban is not satisfied with this, considering these stocks absorb a short-term shock without being a safety net against a persistent disruption. The challenge, he specifies, lies not only in the source of importation but also in the cost of transport, insurance, and delivery times, as the global market reassesses geopolitical risks.
According to Abdelrahmi Bessaha, a former IMF consultant, “the mere perception of a disruption risk in one of these corridors can immediately raise energy prices and reassess risks in financial markets.” Morocco is no longer in the perception stage.
In the markets, OPEC+ has agreed on a new increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May, repeating the gesture from March, widely seen as a political signal. The bypass routes of Hormuz remain congested and only cover a third of the usual flows. Meanwhile, Moroccan stocks are being used up.
