During the Forex transition day, in the absence of significant “macro” data and new language elements from Trump, all those delivered on Monday and Tuesday were largely debunked, particularly the claim that the United States is negotiating with the “right people”, and that the two parties are no longer far from agreeing on everything (the “15-point agreement”, based on the Gaza pacification model). None of this seems to exist, as Iran is not negotiating anything with the White House, refuses to talk with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, and considers any potential agreement on current terms as a suicidal absurdity for Tehran… although they admit to receiving indirect messages via Pakistan, Turkey (or other regional countries with an interest in ceasing the conflict). Receiving messages is not “negotiating”, presenting their own demands does not mean aligning point by point with those of their enemy. The words peace, military and diplomatic victory (Iran would “forever” give up developing “the bomb”), “unprecedented gift” (the rise in oil enriches Texan producers), “agreement on many points” skillfully put forth by Donald Trump nurture hope of de-escalation… while Trump himself – under pressure from the “hawks” of the Pentagon and Tel Aviv – is reportedly deploying assault troops for a massive ground operation on Iranian soil. This could be part of a pressure tactic, without any actual intention of sending US troops to invade a territory without a valid legal reason… but if the plan stems from a logic of displaying dominance, this double game could render any negotiation futile. In any case, Israel does not wish to “negotiate”: no one even mentions the possibility of temporarily halting the reciprocal strikes ravaging Tel Aviv and Tehran, and spilling over into Iraq, Kuwait (which is trying to negotiate a mutual non-aggression commitment). It is fortunate that markets are still clinging to hopes of peace, or else oil prices would skyrocket towards $110, reigniting inflation expectations. The Dollar would once again act as a safe haven and bounce back towards its annual peaks: the “$-Index” is creeping up by only 0.2% to 99.60, its progress accelerating from 1:15 PM after a calm morning. It is rising by +0.5% against the Euro to 1.1555, as well as against the Swiss Franc and Yen, by +0.15% against the Yuan (to 6.9010). On the “macro” front, American import prices rose by 1.3% in February compared to the previous month (figures preceding the outbreak of the war in Iran), driven by a 3.8% surge in fuel prices. Regarding oil, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just reported that crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 6.9 million barrels last week, while analysts had predicted a rise of only 500,000 barrels.
