War in the Middle East: oil consumption down in 2026, a first since the Covid pandemic

Global demand for oil is expected to “fall by an average of 80,000 barrels per day in 2026,” according to the International Energy Agency.

Published on April 14, 2026 at 14:38

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A tanker off the coast of Dubai, in September 2019. (MEHDI DEHDAR / FARS NEWS / AFP)

For the first time since 2020, the year of the Covid-19 pandemic, oil consumption is expected to decline in 2026. The reasons cited are shortages and price increases related to the Middle East conflict, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) believes is the source of the “most severe oil supply shock in history.”

The last annual decline dates back to 2020, when lockdowns and border closures due to the health crisis caused a drop in demand of “8.97 million barrels per day (mb/d),” before returning to regular growth since then, according to an IEA spokesperson. Six years later, the causes are different, but the world is heading towards a new annual consumption decrease, which is expected to stand at 104.26 million barrels per day, compared to 104.34 mb/d in 2025, according to the IEA’s monthly report on oil markets.

Global oil demand is expected to “fall by an average of 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared to 730,000 barrels per day growth expected in last month’s report,” the IEA clarified. The second quarter is also expected to experience a decline of 1.5 mb/d, which “would be the largest since Covid-19 caused fuel consumption to drop,” the Paris-based OECD energy agency added.