François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research, was the guest on “Tout est politique” on Tuesday, April 14. The specialist answered questions from Sonia Chironi and Nathalie Saint-Cricq about Donald Trump’s positions on the war in the Middle East.
Sonia Chironi: François Heisbourg, you have been observing for 46 days now that this war has been going on, this incredible mix of genres. We see an American president speaking about the war in Iran as if it were a joke, yet we are talking about war, we are talking about a major global economic crisis. What do you think of this character Donald Trump? Is he crazy, is he talking nonsense, or does he know exactly what he’s doing?
François Heisbourg: These three hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, that’s the problem. He is certainly limited, if not crazy. That’s quite clear. There are basic things he doesn’t understand. At the same time, he knows what he’s doing. He knows how to win an election, for example. That, he knows how to do. Saying that he knows how to make deals, that’s more debatable. Is he doing anything? Yes. The sequence with the pope yesterday was incredible. He was pictured as the Christ and then explained that the Pope is a coward regarding Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons. Today, he continues with Ms. Meloni. Today, Ms. Meloni is a coward. He sends her to the gallows after raising her to the pinnacle.
Because she denounced unacceptable attacks against the pope?
The fallout from Trump’s papal remarks. It’s astounding. One must really go back to very distant historical periods to find characters combining all these factors. Because once again, the hypotheses you mention are not mutually exclusive. They can all be found in the same person. He can be effective sometimes, and it hurts.
And he is also very dangerous?
Of course he is very dangerous. Being limited, where he is, is not a good starting point.
Nathalie Saint-Cricq: If you had to explain to someone who arrives on Earth where we are at, how would you do it? Some days we hear that the Iranian regime is weakened. Other times, we hear that the United States will withdraw. How would you describe the state of the conflict today in the simplest way possible?
We are in a complete state of uncertainty. That’s the word, uncertainty, it’s a polite way of saying that we know absolutely nothing. Those who claim today to tell you how the conflict will evolve in the coming days obviously do not know what they are talking about. We are in a situation that reflects the characteristics of Mr. Trump. It is possible that there will be an agreement in Islamabad (Pakistan) in the coming days. The lid will probably be placed back on the pot between the Americans and the Iranians by the end of the week. It is even possible that there could be an agreement on nuclear issues. We see that both sides are taking positions. After all, back in 2015, during Obama’s time, there was an agreement between Iran and the main countries on the planet, including the United States and France, on nuclear issues.
What was at the heart of the debates were the 440 kg of enriched uranium that the Americans wanted to control.
I am not talking about what will happen to these 440 kg. I am talking about the right to enrich uranium, which has been Iran’s main demand and a major stumbling block for the American side. But for now, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Viewers who watched the debate on this topic will understand that things are not going well from this point of view. But the longer it goes on, the more complicated it becomes. The world’s energy and economic situation is currently in suspense. Each additional day of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz makes crisis resolution more difficult, more uncertain. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not an easy task. And obviously, all parties must agree. Are the United States willing to let the Iranians continue to control the Strait of Hormuz? They say no, but the Iranians have the key, they have it today. It is not the United States. The United States claim to enforce a blockade, but it is not a blockade since they let ships headed for China pass. Mr. Trump is supposed to go to China in a month. He will not intercept tankers carrying Iranian oil to China at the exit of the Strait of Hormuz, and he is not doing it now. The few ships leaving now are heading towards China.
