Betting on War in Iran, on Jordan Bardella as President… Welcome to Polymarket, Where All Bets Are Allowed.

Polymarket: the controversial world of prediction markets

By Maxime T’sjoen

Published on April 14, 2026 at 9:51 p.m.

“Will Trump praise Allah by April 15th?” “How many tweets will Elon Musk make from April 7th to April 14th, 2026?” These questions may seem amusing at first glance, but they involve millions of euros. Other questions, like the ceasefire date between Israel and Lebanon, are more somber, with thousands of civilian lives lost since the end of February in a war with unpredictable consequences. Welcome to the lunar world of Polymarket, a prediction market where millions (or billions?) of dollars flow every day, although it is banned in France. It is a mysterious world, potentially addictive, where insiders are accused of manipulating outcomes for profit.

Recent cases have raised concerns. In early January, a user earned over $400,000 by predicting the downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shortly before his capture. Weeks ago, six accounts on Polymarket pocketed $1.2 million by betting on a U.S. attack on Iran on February 28th, just as the offensive began.

According to the economist Jamal Bouoiyour, the motivations and information of bettors vary, potentially impacting market fairness. While the market itself may not be biased, the information input can distort outcomes, with some accusing the platform of harboring insider trading.

Polymarket operates on a buy/sell model akin to the stock market, attracting traders more than mere bettors. Users may perceive it as an investment rather than a gamble, fostering a false sense of control and competence, increasing the risk of addiction.

The platform lacks robust player protection, making it more addictive than traditional betting markets. Allegations of insider trading are not unfounded, particularly due to ties between Polymarket and influential figures like Donald Trump Jr., raising suspicions about wins related to geopolitical events.

Polymarket is not authorized in France, a deliberate decision by the company to comply with regulations. However, as with pornographic sites, the blocking mechanism can be bypassed with VPNs. Future authorization in France is possible if the platform aligns with gambling laws and regulations.

In conclusion, Polymarket and similar prediction markets pose risks to users due to the addictive nature of speculative trading and potential insider trading concerns. Adapting regulatory frameworks and enhancing player protections are essential to mitigate these risks and ensure fair and transparent market operations.