Israel in Lebanon, the strategy of depopulation

Israël continues its offensive against Hezbollah, widely considered greatly weakened since the 2024 war. Nevertheless, close combat in southern Lebanon and rocket fire on Israel demonstrate its resistance capabilities. The main victims are the hundreds of thousands of civilians forced into exile to avoid dying under Israeli bombs. Our correspondent in Lebanon, Arthur Sarradin, witnessed scenes showing that the Israeli army has initiated a true strategy of depopulation in the southern part of the country.

This is something felt even in the density of Beirut for several weeks. At the moment, in this conflict, the Israeli army has organized the forced displacement of one-fifth of the Lebanese population. Now, in Lebanon, all media outlets are reporting an imminent invasion. Some Israeli officials even speak of annexation. The Israeli military headquarters, on the other hand, say they want to advance 30 kilometers from the border to what is called the Litani River. The result, first and foremost, is a humanitarian catastrophe, as in addition to forced displacements, civilians are killed in constant bombardments since 2024. The Israeli army has also targeted over 200 rescuers and journalists. In the south of the country, there is also an environmental disaster, with white phosphorus used. Additionally, glyphosate has been sprayed to desertify the land. Civilian homes at the border are systematically dynamited, entire towns and villages flattened. Bridges leading south have been bombed. As for Hezbollah, many Lebanese still blame them for precipitating a situation feared by all in support of their Iranian allies. However, their base is gradually shrinking with Tel Aviv’s operations. War crimes like those in Gaza are accused by various NGOs including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. The UN calls for respect for the Geneva Convention.

Do these events characterize an Israeli strategy of depopulation in Lebanon? Thomas Cluzel asked this question to Daniel Meier, professor at Sciences Po Grenoble and holder of the junior professor chair in “Geopolitics of the Middle East and Border Studies.”

It is indeed a strategy pursued since 2024. When we witnessed the first massive, complete destruction of villages – more than fifty villages wiped off the map along the border – mostly for security reasons at the time. Now, in the current phase of this second conflict, we are witnessing an actual desire for occupation, as stated by political leaders. Every time there is an occupation, there is a price to pay. To avoid local resistance, the best solution is to erase all villages in the way, preventing people from hiding and resisting, thus saving the lives of Israeli soldiers.

Since the beginning of March, whether it is evacuation orders to the population, arguments for creating a buffer zone in the name of existential danger posed by an armed group to Israel, or the destruction of these residential areas, it all seems reminiscent of actions in Gaza. Does this comparison seem valid?

It is indeed valid. It also recalls what was called the Dahiya doctrine, a strategy invented in 2006 by the Israeli army, involving massive retaliation to any attack, including destruction of civilian infrastructure. This is clearly echoed in what has been done in Gaza, although there is a key difference in that we are in Lebanon, a sovereign state. One can hope for a more serious international intervention this time.

One final question to understand the importance of Southern Lebanon for Israel. Regarding water resources, why is this topic crucial in understanding the current situation?

Water resources are fundamental. Israel, facing chronic water shortages, and the Palestinians in the occupied territories living with ten times less water than Israeli citizens, makes the water resources in the south of Lebanon, particularly the Litani River, crucial. During the previous occupation, Israel diverted water from the Litani River to the Jordan River.

The situation in Lebanon is extremely worrying, with a real risk of a humanitarian catastrophe, as reported by the UN Refugee Agency (HCR), concerning over one million displaced persons across the country. HCR emphasizes the overcrowded shelters, mainly schools, where displaced persons are no longer feeling safe.

The Israeli army is running out of recruits, creating a strategic turning point? Israeli politicians advocate for an occupation of Lebanon, but military leaders object due to operations on multiple fronts – Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen to a lesser extent. Yesterday, the Israeli opposition highlighted a lack of political consensus on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s regional war conduct. The army openly admits the need for more troops, underlining the urgent situation.

The chief of staff’s warning is very serious. He stated that the army would collapse due to personnel shortages amid war on multiple fronts. The need for soldiers increases as Israel occupies peripheral areas, making the presence of the army necessary to contain settler violence. The chief’s statement is a dual criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s policies, particularly regarding his ultra-Orthodox allies exempt from military service, and his strategy of de facto annexation of the Judea and Samaria region, resulting in the construction of new outposts on Palestinian lands, requiring a military presence to curb settler violence.