If climate shocks redefine local opportunities, increases in the prices of natural resources raise the stakes of conflicts. Rises in oil and metal prices have often intensified violence in production zones, especially when extraction is capital-intensive and resources can be plundered. The green transition risks exacerbating these dynamics.
The demand for “transition minerals” (also known as “critical minerals”) is increasing rapidly, further amplifying this form of predation in certain regions, while revenues from fossil fuels decrease elsewhere.
The precise mechanisms by which mining activity triggers conflicts also depend on the type of exploitation. In the case of artisanal mining, the employment of the local population plays a much more significant role than in industrial exploitation. Furthermore, pollution from the extraction of these minerals – particularly water contamination – can also reduce agricultural yields far beyond mining sites. Livelihoods are thus lost, doubly fueling the risks of conflict.
Risk factors often overlap. Regions prone to drought are frequently above mineral deposits. Climate risks and resource-related risks could mutually exacerbate to trigger violence, although these complementarities are still poorly understood.
