Speaking at the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C. on April 9, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva emphasized that even in the most optimistic scenario, it is unlikely that the world will return to its pre-conflict state. Rising energy costs, damaged infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, and decreased market confidence will result in lower-than-expected growth.
The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which erupted in late February, has plunged the Middle East into violence, disrupted global supply chains, and caused oil prices to soar after Iran nearly blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route for global energy transport. The IMF anticipates a significant increase in emergency financial assistance needs for affected countries, initially estimated between 20 and 50 billion dollars. Additionally, the organization may need to provide up to 50 billion dollars in aid to vulnerable economies, as the supply chain and transportation crisis is expected to plunge at least 45 million people into food insecurity.
The IMF also anticipates a global inflation revision upward due to the impact of energy price shocks and disruptions in international trade. According to a joint statement from the IMF, World Bank, and World Food Program (WFP), the sharp increase in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, combined with supply difficulties, will inevitably lead to higher food prices. The World Bank estimates that the Middle East is experiencing severe and immediate economic losses. Excluding Iran, regional economic growth is expected to reach only 1.8% this year, a sharp 2.4 percentage point decline from pre-conflict levels.
Furthermore, the IMF has also warned about the consequences of an asymmetric crisis, where poor energy-importing countries are much harder hit than other economies. Countries at the end of the supply chain, such as Pacific island states, are at risk of severe fuel shortages. In this context, the IMF has urged countries to coordinate their policies to mitigate the impact of the conflict, avoiding unilateral measures such as export controls or price controls that could worsen the situation. It has also advised central banks to be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation risks becoming uncontrollable, even if it may further slow down growth.
According to IMF reports, production in war-torn countries could drop by 3% in the first year and continue to decline in the following years. Low-income countries are more exposed to food insecurity and require increased international support in a context of reduced global aid.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/imf-can-nhac-ha-du-bao-tang-truong-toan-cau-20260410095128930.htm
