How Climate Change Fuels Violence

In a joint article by Oliver Vanden Eynde, a professor at the Paris School of Economics, and Juan Vargas, a Professor of Economics at the University of Turin, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is discussed. These climate shocks not only disrupt ecosystems but also reshape global social, economic, and political dynamics.

The transition to a low-carbon economy, while necessary, has led to an unprecedented demand for minerals like lithium and rare earths. These resources are often extracted in regions already destabilized by social tensions or armed conflicts.

One such case highlighted is the conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, where each accuses the other of arming rebel groups, mediating eventually by the United States. Rich in cobalt and copper, these areas are experiencing prolonged droughts and increasingly heavy rains, impacting populations predominantly reliant on agriculture.

Since 2010, economists have been increasingly studying the complex links between climate change, natural resource exploitation, and conflict risk. Robust results have been obtained, offering concrete paths to guide public policymakers.

The article delves into how agriculture plays a central role in conflicts, with droughts, heatwaves, and floods raising the probability and intensity of violence. Factors such as reduced agricultural incomes, resource scarcity, and increased aggression due to heat contribute to conflict escalation.

The content further discusses how environmental degradation from conflict, including illegal mining, deforestation, and pollution, forms vicious cycles where violence and environmental deterioration feed off each other.

As climate shocks redefine local opportunities and natural resource prices rise, conflicts become more intense. The green transition, while essential, could exacerbate these dynamics by increasing competition over resources.

Policies identified to mitigate conflict risks include individual insurance, social protection, irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and improved transport links. Regulation of mineral extraction, fair benefit-sharing, transparency, and certification are deemed crucial to addressing conflicts linked to resource exploitation.

Addressing conflict risks through public actions comes at a cost, but these measures are generally cheaper than prolonged conflict and can yield additional economic benefits. Further scientific evidence is needed to inform effective policy design amid evolving debates on conflict triggers such as biodiversity loss and migration.