The degradation is settling in. The 155th Grant Thornton barometer of confidence for SMEs-ETIs, published in mid-April, confirms a sustained shift in the economic climate. Conducted by OpinionWay with 220 executives, the study highlights a marked drop in optimism, in a tense international context.
“March warned us. April confirms: SME and ETI leaders are no longer facing a conjunctural shock, but a deep reconfiguration of global economic balances. Caution has settled in strategies, employment is slowing, and decisions are necessary. It is precisely in these moments that quality support makes a difference, the one that helps to decide, not just to wait,” said Adam Nicol, president of Grant Thornton.
A decline in confidence in the French and global economy
The signal is clear according to the study: only 22% of executives are optimistic about the evolution of the French economy, a historically low level since the end of the health crisis, compared to 66% a year ago. All sectors are affected, with a majority of concerned actors in industry, commerce, and services.
Internationally, the situation is even more degraded. Confidence drops to 18%, an unprecedented floor since 2020. The tensions in the Middle East amplify the effects of the oil shock and disrupt global supply chains.
Activity: a general decline
Business activity outlooks are also decreasing. This month, 66% of executives are confident about their own companies, a 10-point drop in two months. The indicator falls below 70%, breaking with the positive trend observed in 2025. All sectors are affected: services drop to 75%, commerce to 65%, and industry to 61%. A homogeneous decline reflecting a widespread concern.
So far resilient, the employment dynamics show a sharp slowdown. Only 11% of executives plan to increase their workforce, while 10% plan to reduce it. The employment balance falls by 1 point, signaling a fragile situation.
Growth and investments under pressure
Growth prospects are contracting significantly: 39% of executives anticipate progress, compared to 55% in February. Conversely, stagnation becomes the dominant scenario for 50% of them.
Strategic decisions are evolving. The percentage of companies stating they are not concerned about certain investments is increasing, especially in R&D and international, reflecting a focus on immediate priorities. Furthermore, 26% of executives consider external growth operations, with 10% certain.
International tensions reemerge as the primary concern for executives: 61% place geopolitical issues at the top of their worries. In addition, 64% believe the conflict in the Middle East influences their outlook.
Adaptation and refocusing strategies
In this context, companies are adjusting their strategies. Nearly 59% anticipate an impact on their prices, mostly on the rise, due to energy costs. Supply chains are also evolving: 53% of executives are considering changes, between diversification and supplier reduction.
Finally, energy projects are being reassessed. Nearly one in two executives foresee adjustments, between slowing down and accelerating investments. In this uncertain climate, certain issues such as skills, cybersecurity, or regulation temporarily take a back seat, a sign of a strategic refocusing dictated by economic urgency.
