Blockade announced by Donald Trump, possible toll imposed by Iran, threat of mines… What is the situation

One of the most scrutinized places on the planet due to the war in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is even more in the limelight, on Sunday, April 12, as the President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced the naval blockade of this zone by the American navy, accusing Iran of not allowing ships to circulate freely there, and expressing his dissatisfaction after failed negotiations in Pakistan. In response, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed to have “completely under control” the strait, and threatened to trap their enemies in a “deadly whirlpool.”

The ceasefire agreement reached on Tuesday had raised hopes for a resumption of traffic in this strategic passage, where about a quarter of the world’s oil transits. The traffic paralysis, since the start of the war in the Middle East on February 28, has caused a surge in oil prices, disrupting the global economy and worrying many governments, especially regarding the rise in prices at the pump. Franceinfo summarizes a situation that continues to become more complex.

Ships passing through the strait drop sharply despite the truce

Both Iran and the United States assured that the ceasefire included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but few captains were willing to venture into this passage that saw an average of 120 ships crossing each day before the war. On the first day of the truce, Wednesday, only five ships passed through, according to data from the company Kpler, specialized in maritime flow analysis. Two days later, “only 19 ships had been reported crossing the strait since the ceasefire,” calculated the BBC based on information from the Marine Traffic website, which allows tracking ships worldwide.

The situation remained the same as before the ceasefire: ten ships on average were traversing the strait each day during the week of March 30, while the war was raging. Among them were vessels operated by Iran, as well as China and India, which enabled the Islamic Republic to continue exporting Iranian oil.

Maritime carriers justified their extreme caution by explaining the need for clarity on the terms of the ceasefire, while Iran asserted that the maritime route remained closed to unauthorized vessels. The coastguards of the Islamic Republic even threatened to “target and destroy” those who did not adhere to the rules, as reported by Reuters on Wednesday. On the same day, the Iranian news agency Fars, close to the regime, claimed that traffic had been completely blocked on the order of the Revolutionary Guards, citing a ceasefire violation in Lebanon by Israel.

Referenced on Thursday by the American channel CNN, the shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, a giant in maritime freight, specified that they would “refrain from traversing the strait,” with six of their container ships still blocked. “Our absolute priority is the safety of our employees, on land and at sea,” communicated a spokesperson for the German shipowner. Like the previous days, the Marine Traffic website showed minimal traffic in the strait on Sunday, with hundreds of ships stationed on either side of the area. The United Nations reported on March 31 that about 2,000 ships and 20,000 sailors remained blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, a situation unprecedented since World War II.

The threat of sea mines persists

The specter of the area being mined heightens the uncertainty. Despite denying any action in this regard despite accusations from Washington, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards declared on Thursday that ships passing through the strait should take two alternative routes close to the Iranian coasts, citing the possibility of encountering mines on the usual route further offshore. According to U.S. estimates, as cited by the New York Times, Iran possesses around 5,000 floating mines in its arsenal. Donald Trump claims, however, the destruction of all Iranian vessels capable of laying mines.

On Saturday, the U.S. Central Command for the Middle East (Centcom) stated that two destroyers from its fleet had crossed the passage to begin “setting the conditions” for demining the route, within the scope of “a broader mission to ensure that the strait is completely cleared of marine mines previously laid by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.” In a message a few hours later on Truth Social, Donald Trump assured that the U.S. had started “the process of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.”

Donald Trump now aims to impose a blockade

On Sunday, a few hours after failed negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, Donald Trump reversed course and announced an American naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. “From now on, the U.S. Navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of blocking all ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz,” wrote the American president on his social network, specifying that “no one can navigate safely on the high seas if they pay an illegal toll.” “Iran had promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and deliberately failed to keep its word,” he justified.

“Any Iranian who fires on us, or who fires on peaceful ships, will be pulverized,” threatened the leader in two lengthy messages, suggesting that “other countries” would be involved in the blockade effort, without naming them. On Fox News, a little later, he assured that the United Kingdom “and a few other countries” would send mine-clearing ships to the strait. However, London has not announced the deployment of warships in the region.

Nevertheless, his decision to impose a naval blockade and sanction companies accepting to pay a passage fee “will only stop a very small number of ships. Globally, this changes nothing,” declares BBC’s Lars Jensen, an expert in international maritime transport. “Very few ships pass. Even fewer pay, and those who pay are already subject to American sanctions,” he adds. Ultimately, “it’s all about trust” for shipowners. Given the uncertainty of the situation, in their eyes, it seems most urgent to wait.