EU Summit in Cyprus: Ukraine, Hormuz, energy and defense

The leaders of the European Union have gathered in Cyprus for an informal summit that will kick off an internal process to establish a mutual assistance clause that could potentially replace Article 5 of NATO, if the United States were to withdraw from the alliance, which President Donald Trump has threatened multiple times.

The massive invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the war in the Middle East, the worsening energy crisis, and the future of the EU’s long-term budget will also be on the agenda. However, no decisions will be made on Thursday or Friday due to the informal nature of the meeting.

Cyprus, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council, will host the meeting.

Notably absent from the meeting will be Viktor Orbán, the longest-serving member of the European Council, who suffered a significant defeat in the Hungarian elections earlier this month, ending his sixteen years at the helm of the government.

Orbán, who will step down from his position next month, has decided not to participate in what would have been his final summit. His office explains that this decision is due to the transfer of power.

Most European leaders are eager to turn the page on the Orbán era, characterized by constant disruptions, obstruction, and opposition. The Hungarian Prime Minister’s notable use of veto power to block EU action has frustrated heads of state and government, sometimes paralyzing the Union at critical moments.

Two of his vetoes, regarding the €90 billion aid package to Ukraine and the twentieth round of sanctions against Russia, were lifted on Thursday following the resumption of Russian oil shipments through the Druzhba pipeline, dating back to the Soviet era.

Other issues remain active, particularly concerning Ukraine’s accession process to the European Union.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has fiercely opposed Orbán, is expected to attend the leaders’ dinner in Ayia Napa on Thursday evening to advocate for his country’s membership, seen as a security guarantee after the war.

Although Orbán has been the main opponent of Ukraine’s accession, other countries are hesitant to make substantial progress on EU enlargement, a divisive issue among voters. An innovative proposal to accelerate Kyiv’s process through an “inverted methodology” was firmly rejected, with member states instead seeking credible alternatives.

Ukraine aims to at least unlock thematic negotiation groups.

“There is no doubt that this process requires, as they say in Europe, unanimity, so that all voices of Europe are heard. I think in the near future, in the weeks (and) months, we will see how things unfold, how partners come together,” Zelensky stated on Wednesday.

“We hope and firmly believe that this issue will be resolved.”

The war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States have imposed reciprocal blockades, will also be on the agenda. Europeans have proposed creating a multinational force to escort commercial ships and demine the narrow waterway, but this project is still in its early stages and may never come to fruition.

The disruptions in Hormuz have sharply driven up energy prices across Europe, sparking fears of shortages, poverty, and economic decline. Leaders will discuss a series of new measures unveiled by the European Commission earlier in the week, such as social schemes, tax cuts, investments in networks, and subsidies for clean technologies.

Building on the experience of the 2022 energy crisis, which significantly increased public debt levels, the Commission calls on EU governments to provide targeted and temporary assistance that can be quickly phased out as prices begin to decline.

Similar protection to NATO?

Cypriot President Nicos Christodoulidis aims to use the summit to initiate a thorough reflection on Article 42.7 of the EU treaties, which provides for mutual assistance in case of armed aggression against a member state.

This article has only been used once, by France in 2015.

Cyprus is one of the few EU countries not belonging to NATO and therefore cannot benefit from the alliance’s Article 5. The thorny issue arose at the start of the war against Iran, when a Shahed drone struck a British military base on the island.

“We have Article 42.7 and we do not know what will happen if a member state triggers this article,” Christodoulidis said to AP ahead of the summit.

A senior EU official stated that the idea is for leaders to freely debate Article 42.7, its compatibility with NATO, and its practical dimension. The EU treaties leave the door open to various types of assistance, be it economic, diplomatic, or military.

In Nicosia, leaders will also address the issue of the future shape of the EU’s long-term budget, with the Commission proposing €2 trillion over a seven-year period from 2028 to 2034. Most EU countries wish to reduce the overall amount but are at odds over which areas to cut.

Brussels aims to reach an agreement on the new budget by the end of the year, as crucial elections will take place in 2027 in France, Italy, Spain, and Poland.