China raising the stakes after a month and a half of conflict?
President Xi Jinping reacted to developments in the Middle East war on Tuesday, April 14, during a meeting with Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyane. “Preserving the authority of international law should not mean using it when it suits us and rejecting it when it does not,” criticized the leader, two days after Donald Trump’s announcement of the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran claimed on Friday to have “completely opened” it for the rest of the ceasefire.
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A diplomacy that is willingly “ambiguous”
On the first day of the war, Chinese diplomacy quickly denounced the first Israeli-American strikes against Tehran, condemning “a violation of international law.” The death of the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, “constitutes a serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security,” it added, calling for respect for the “fundamental standards governing international relations.”
By defending “the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of all Gulf countries,” Beijing shows “cautious support” towards its Iranian partner, said Marc Julienne, Director of the Asia Center at Ifri, to Franceinfo.
“Taking a firm stand on the side of Tehran potentially risks alienating other partners: the Gulf countries” affected by Iranian reprisals. China also does not want to worsen its relations with the United States, in a context of ‘heating up’ [of relations] between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
In the conflict between Washington and Tel Aviv against Tehran, China presented a five-point plan (New window) with the help of Pakistan to “restore peace and stability” in the Middle East. The initiative, presented at the end of March, urged the belligerents to immediately cease hostilities, initiate peace negotiations, and ensure, among other things, the security of civilian infrastructure.
After the failure of negotiations between Iran and the United States in Pakistan, Xi Jinping promised on Tuesday that his country would “continue to play a constructive role” in the resumption of talks.
“There is a lack of experience in China in the field of crisis mediation,” Marc Julienne said. “For me, Pakistan is a leader in these negotiations.”
Economic interests in Iran and the Gulf
This mediator image is also explained by China’s significant and diverse interests in the Middle East, from Iran to the Gulf countries. “It has good relations with each party,” noted Marc Julienne.
“Talking, trading with everyone, that is China’s advantage in the Middle East. It is important for Beijing to preserve this,” said Marc Julienne, Director of the Asia Center at the French Institute of International Relations to Franceinfo.
“Iran represents 13-14% of China’s total oil imports. For the entire Gulf region, it is around 50%,” said Marc Julienne.
In this context, Donald Trump’s naval blockade of the strategic zone did not sit well with its major rival. This time, the statements hardened, with Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denouncing at a press briefing “dangerous and irresponsible behavior.”
China is “undergoing this situation,” observes Marc Julienne, with consequences on the domestic level, as “the price of oil has increased.”
Trump dreams of Chinese cellophane
While China can see it coming, the United States seem determined not to let it act behind the scenes. Sources close to the intelligence services have told CNN that Beijing intends to sell weapons to Iran to fight American and Israeli troops.
In an interview on the American television network Fox Business, Donald Trump affirmed on Wednesday that he had written to Xi Jinping to demand that he not go in that direction. In response, his counterpart assured him that “this is not what he was doing,” the billionaire reported. Two days earlier, Guo Jiakun had dismissed as “groundless slander” and “malicious accusations.”
Marc Julienne remains “very cautious” about what would constitute a “very significant change” on the part of China.
>> Read the full article on the France Info website.
