The United Arab Emirates leave OPEC: is this a turning point for the global oil market?

The United Arab Emirates formally left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday. This sudden departure by a heavyweight of the cartel could reshape the global oil balance.

Published on 02/05/2026 at 06:22 – Reading time: 3min

An announcement on the UAE’s departure was made on April 28, with the exit coming into effect on Friday, May 1. It comes amidst internal tensions within OPEC+ on production quotas and a regional crisis around the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil flows. Established in 1960, OPEC aims to coordinate production policies to impact crude oil prices.

Often labeled a cartel, the organization’s principle is to adjust global oil supply to stabilize prices. Less production leads to price increases, while increased supply tends to lower prices. Over the decades, OPEC has expanded and now operates alongside OPEC+, an alliance including ten additional countries, such as Russia, representing about a third of global oil production. The UAE held a strategic position within this group, as one of the major producers with an estimated daily production of around 3.6 million barrels.

Apart from their current production, the UAE possesses the major advantage of quickly boosting production to over 4 million barrels per day, targeting 5 million by 2027. Their power increase has clashed with OPEC+ quotas limiting each member’s production to regulate prices. By leaving the organization, Abu Dhabi frees itself from these constraints to increase production and sell resources quickly amid a global energy transition where long-term oil demand could decline.

While UAE authorities claim this decision is “non-political,” it occurs in a context of strained relations with de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. Disagreements have arisen in recent years over production levels and strategic directions within the OPEC+ alliance. Tensions between these former allies have become public, particularly concerning support for rival factions in Yemen. Since the start of the Middle East conflict, Abu Dhabi has openly shown disappointment with traditional allies like the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council based in Riyadh.

In the short term, this departure is unlikely to cause immediate market upheaval, given the unrest in the Strait of Hormuz with limited exports. However, medium-term consequences could be more significant. With freed quotas, the UAE might increase production, injecting more barrels into the global market. This rise could potentially exert downward pressure on oil prices. Another possible outcome is reduced regulation capacity for OPEC with the loss of a producer capable of adjusting production swiftly in case of shocks.

This departure also raises concerns about the internal cohesion of the cartel. Several member countries have already been reprimanded for exceeding quotas, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, as reported by the International Energy Agency. While no other departure is officially planned at this stage, the UAE’s move could fuel tensions and weaken the organization’s unity. With the exit of a major and flexible player, OPEC enters a new phase where its ability to stabilize the global oil market might face further challenges.