The Middle East in a state of vertigo awaiting the day after

The confrontation between Israel and Iran, an epicenter of conflict in the Middle East, has been brewing for decades. It has expanded the battlefield and opened a Pandora’s box that seems impossible to shut. The Iranian question is reshaping the region,” said Dorothée Schmid, an expert at Ifri, during the 18th World Policy Conference in Chantilly.

For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia and Vladimir Putin were notably absent from the conference organized annually by Thierry de Montbrial, the president of the French Institute of International Relations. The Israeli-American operation against one of the most repressive and dangerous regimes on the planet has unleashed chaos in the region, traumatizing its residents.

Politicians and experts gathered in Chantilly agreed that the war in Iran, regardless of its outcome, has fundamentally changed the Middle East. “This conflict is different from others. For the first time, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. For the first time, non-belligerent countries in the Gulf were attacked by Iran. The threat has also evolved, now mainly coming from drones and light equipment,” said Jihad Azour, Middle East director at the IMF.

While Israeli-American bombings weakened Iran’s military infrastructure, the regime shifted its strategy towards the vital Strait of Hormuz and drones, which are easier and cheaper to produce. The attacks on Gulf states have left enduring wounds, especially in countries that were slowly moving towards reconciliation with Iran.

“It is unrealistic to think trust can be restored between the UAE and Iran after being attacked with 2,800 missiles and drones. It will take an eternity,” warned Anwar Gargash, an influential advisor to the emir.

Former UAE Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy hopes for a Middle East free from the Iranian threat, emphasizing the importance of defeating extremist ideologies and building trust between nations. However, uncertainties about the future persist, influenced by shifting global dynamics.

While some foresee a dark future for Israel with the continuing presence of Iran, others believe Israel has gained from the war, temporarily reducing Iran’s threat and global reach. Despite ongoing negotiations between Americans and Iranians, the Iranian threat remains, with various scenarios for the future looming, including regime change.

“We are at a pivotal moment. If the war persists, it will have repercussions worldwide,” warned Jihad Azour, from the IMF. The economic pressure on the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a potential tactic to weaken Iran, amidst complex geopolitical dynamics and looming elections.

Read the article on Le Figaro’s website.