Geopolitics

For several months, the Middle East has been undergoing a major strategic reorganization. The Israeli-American offensive against Iran has deeply disrupted regional balances: tensions in the Gulf, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cross-border strikes, fragility of ceasefires, and a return to a logic of direct confrontation between regional powers.

Behind this highly publicized war, another crisis, less visible in Europe, is rapidly deteriorating: the conflict between Pakistan and the Taliban-led Afghanistan. The situation is nearing an “open war” between Islamabad and Kabul. Border clashes are increasing, as are aerial strikes, while Pakistan accuses Afghan Taliban of sheltering Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters responsible for deadly attacks on Pakistani soil. Paradoxically, Islamabad is trying to position itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, discreetly supported by Saudi Arabia, close to the United States but constrained by its neighboring Iran.

At the same time, Pakistan is seeking to transform extreme internal vulnerability into a diplomatic opportunity, under the watchful eye of New Delhi, which is strengthening ties with Kabul in a strategy to encircle its historical rival. Beyond the Middle East crises, a new battle for influence in South Asia is emerging, involving India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, China, and the Gulf monarchies. Are we witnessing a regionalization of the Middle Eastern conflict up to the gates of South Asia? Is the risk of a widespread regional escalation being underestimated?

Invited Guests:

• Olivier Weber, writer and senior reporter. Author of “Des Anges et des ogres” recently published by Calmann-Lévy.
• Jean-Luc Racine, emeritus research director at CNRS, senior researcher at the Asia Centre think tank.