Publication Date: April 17, 2026 22:41
Last Updated: April 17, 2026 22:42
Reading Time: 4min – Video: 20min
Gilles Kepel, a specialist in the Arab world, was the guest on “Tout est politique” on Friday, April 17. The specialist answered Myriam Encaoua’s questions about the possibility of a peace agreement between Iran and the United States.
This text corresponds to a transcript of part of the interview above. Click on the video to watch the full interview.
Myriam Encaoua: Is the purchasing power of Americans Donald Trump’s Achilles’ heel, more than anything else?
Gilles Kepel: Yes, this is what explains, among other things, what is currently happening in the war with Iran where we are moving, at least for now, away from military confrontation and focusing on economic issues.
We have already seen a significant drop in oil prices by six dollars. How do you view this day, Gilles Kepel? Because it is very eventful from the side of the White House. Tonight, the American president tells AFP that a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran is close. Should we believe him?
He has said it many times already. When you lie a lot, people stop believing you. But why not? Indeed, there has been a cessation of war activities. In the past two days, Iran itself hasn’t attacked. It was proxies from Iraq, Iraqi militias, who sent some missiles and drones to Kuwait and Bahrain. The UAE and Saudi Arabia were not impacted, and in Lebanon, there is a form of active non-belligerence today. It is clear that both sides have a willingness, for now, to cease hostilities and move towards a different type of negotiation, which is an economic and political negotiation.
Even the Iranians? Do you think they are now willing to enter this new phase?
It is very difficult to say when we don’t have the numbers in hand and when everything about Iran is an opaque continent for information. But the calculation we can make is that Iran is in an economic catastrophe. It was the case before. There have been massive infrastructural destructions, and the naval blockade, carried out by the Americans, which turned away about ten oil-laden ships, is working.
Tactical victory for the American naval blockade?
For now, yes. In essence, people thought that the Americans wouldn’t dare. Some commentators said that the United States would never stop a tanker with a Chinese flag in front of American destroyers. However, the tankers didn’t have Chinese flags because they were bulk carriers under sanctions, oil under sanctions. They had flags from Malawi or flags of convenience. And so none of them passed. So, in a way, the United States has managed to initiate a process that affects China’s oil supply from Iran and, most importantly, reduces Iran’s income.
Do you think China could have also influenced this opening? We have this opening announced by the Iranian Foreign Minister. Can we really talk about an opening tonight, an Iranian one in the Strait of Hormuz?
Let’s wait and see, but until now, the Iranians had never said they were reopening. Indeed, the Chinese cannot afford, even if they currently have significant hydrocarbon reserves, for this situation to last indefinitely since they are a manufacturing empire that needs a constant flow of hydrocarbons, otherwise they will be in a bad situation. This is not necessarily what they want. Furthermore, it is clear that there is a desire from all sides to slow things down. For example, if the oil flow were stuck for a long time, including LNG, we will have problems with kerosene, and some airlines have already canceled flights and blocked several routes from the end of the month.
Click on the video to watch the full interview.
