It is sometimes said that if Russia did not win the War in Ukraine after 4 and a half years, Ukraine has also not lost. Ulrike Franke, a researcher at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR) and an expert in security and defense issues, believes that Volodymyr Zelensky’s country is holding strong. Not only is it holding strong, but according to her, “the Ukrainian army is the only one in the world capable of conducting a drone war.” She was the guest on Radio Classique’s morning show this Monday.
How do you interpret Vladimir Putin’s statement about the imminent end of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the possibility of German mediation by Gerhard Schröder?
ULRIKE FRANKE: In my opinion, this is not a significant change. It was just a passing phrase at the end of the interview, not an official statement. Therefore, I do not expect it to significantly alter Russian policy. However, it is not just a good sign, but rather a bad one: it shows that Vladimir Putin is starting to think about how to end this war.
He is probably nervous, as we are in the fifth year of this conflict and things are not going very well for Russia – they are not winning, and who could have predicted this four and a half years ago? However, this is not a sign of a real policy change. The day before, during the Russian military parade, he said nothing. The war continues, and I imagine that Vladimir Putin still hopes to win it.
Ulrike Franke: “Gerhard Schröder is very close to Putin, that’s why his name was mentioned.”
But when he mentions Gerhard Schröder as a mediator, is it because he is thinking of a ceasefire?
U.F. Perhaps. This proposal is very interesting. Gerhard Schröder was the German Chancellor until 2005, before Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, and the current Chancellor Friedrich Merz – that’s twenty years. Why mention this name? Because he is very close to Putin. Upon leaving office in 2005, he went to work in Russia for a Russian energy company, which earned him harsh criticism in Germany.
Putin is choosing his employee…
U.F. Somewhat, yes. He is seen as a rather successful chancellor domestically, but internationally, especially in his relationship with Putin and Russia, he is viewed very critically. In fact, the German media did not really discuss this proposal – it almost seems like a bad joke, not something serious.
That said, we need to think more seriously about one thing: when a mediator comes into play, they must necessarily be accepted by both sides. It cannot be someone approved only by Ukrainians and the West – Russia must also trust them to some extent. It will be difficult to find the right profile. It will probably be someone more discreet. As for Gerhard Schröder, it’s interesting to think about, but I don’t believe it will be him.
The New York Times asserts that at the current rate, if Russia wants to take control of the entire Donbass, it would take them 30 years.
You say the war is far from over despite this small phrase. Ukraine has mastered drone technologies. Are you among those who say that Ukraine still has not lost this war?
U.F. Absolutely. Ukraine has not lost this war. Look at the current situation: we are in the fifth year of the conflict, and Ukraine is holding on. Russia has only occupied a small part of the territories it claims. The New York Times recently calculated that at the current rate, if Russia wants to take control of the entire Donbass, it would take them thirty years. Russia is hardly advancing. The fact that Ukraine is still standing means they have not lost.
And let’s remember: during the Russian military parade on Red Square a few days ago, almost Ukrainian permission was needed to hold it – the Ukrainians indicated that they would not attack during the parade, which was also a strong signal to Russia. This parade was also much smaller than previous ones, and the fear of a Ukrainian attack was palpable. The symbolic victory should not be underestimated. However, Russia has not lost either. It is entirely possible that Ukraine could still lose. But after four and a half years of war, the fact that Ukraine is still standing, and standing strong, is impressive.
Imagine if the war were to end in a few months, or one or two years. Is this a sufficient reason for Europe to stop worrying about Russian ambitions and the hybrid war that Russia is waging against it? Europe wants to be ready to respond to Russia by 2030. Will it be ready?
U.F. Unfortunately, if this war ends, it does not mean the threats disappear. If Putin’s regime continues, the reasons to worry remain. NATO and several member countries’ intelligence services have analyzed what Russia is producing in terms of military equipment: they are no longer just manufacturing for the Ukrainian war, but are already preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO countries.
Ulrike Franke: “Ukraine is the only army in the world truly capable of waging a drone war.”
The capabilities are being built, and the intention to harm NATO members is constantly reaffirmed by Putin and his circle. This adds to the hybrid war – or hybrid peace – with cyber attacks, sabotage, disinformation, drones flying over critical infrastructures all over Europe. Russia clearly has the will to attack Europe and NATO in one way or another. Are we sufficiently prepared today? Not yet. But all over Europe, especially on the eastern flank, in Germany and elsewhere, rearmament is underway. Equipment is being purchased, budgets are increasing, discussions on conscription and troop increases are open. Europe is preparing, but it will take time.
The Finnish president Alexander Stubb praised the efficiency of the Ukrainian army two weeks ago, considering it the most important, modern, and effective in Europe. Do you share this appreciation? Has Ukraine taken a technological lead far superior to that of Germany, France, or Europe in general?
U.F. Technologically, yes, absolutely. Today, Ukraine is the only army in the world truly capable of waging a drone war and combating drones as well.
Moreover, when the war in the Middle East broke out, it was the Gulf countries that turned to Ukraine for help against Iranian drones. There is a real Ukrainian advantage in all matters related to technology and innovation. Ukraine is extremely quick in adapting its systems, from one week to the next.
On everything else, we must keep in mind that Ukraine is a country at war – they do things that we are not capable of doing, precisely because we are in a state of relative peace.
You say that in terms of innovation, Ukraine is advancing faster than France and its partners.
U.F. Absolutely. Every few weeks, Ukraine – and Russia as well – adjust their drone and counter-drone systems because it is an absolute necessity in this cat-and-mouse game. We really struggle to keep up with this pace. We can learn from Ukraine, especially in terms of technology and innovation.
“German rearmament is necessary for Germany and for the entire Europe”
One topic that is concerning many observers today is Germany’s historical level of rearmament ambition. Some, especially the French, are worried: if Germany arms itself as it intends to, with the rise of the far right and the AfD, should we fear the return of certain ghosts from history?
U.F. It is essential to separate these two topics. German rearmament, this historical turning point of the Zeitenwende, is simply necessary. We mentioned the Russian threat, but we must also mention the fact that the United States is more or less abandoning Europe. German rearmament is therefore necessary – not only for Germany but for the entire Europe.
I say it very clearly: it is good news for Europe, including France. We must distinguish this from the rise in votes for AfD. I understand that European partners, and many Germans themselves, are concerned about it.
But I don’t believe that AfD poses a threat to other Europeans – we must not exaggerate. It is a clearly nationalist, anti-EU party, but wondering if Germany could once again become a threat to Europe is certainly going too far in this context.
