>> GULF COAST WEATHER CERTIFIED MOST ACCURATE >> IN THE HEART OF JUNE AND TRACKING THE TROPICS ALREADY, LAUREN, BUT JUST AN AREA OF INTEREST. YEAH. SNOW, TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT EVEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SO I KNOW ANY TIME WE TALK ABOUT SOMETHING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF, IT CAN MAKE A LOT OF YOU AN EASY, BUT MAKE SURE YOU REALIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL POSE ABSOLUTELY NO THREAT TO FLORIDA. 0% DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AND THE LATEST ODDS RAMPED UP JUST A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. NOW, LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, 30%. SO THE REASON WE’RE SEEING SUCH A LOW ODDS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE HERE IS THIS IS STILL DOES DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MEXICO. THIS IS GOING TO HAVE JUST A SMALL WINDOW MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THEIR. THIS CONTINUES TO LIFT UP TO THE NORTHEAST. SO LOUISIANA, TEXAS, THIS IS GOING TO BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BUT FOR US, WE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS. ALL OF THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SO NO THREAT TO FLORIDA KNOW EVEN IN DIRECT THREAT TO FLORIDA BUT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF. WE’RE NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 80’S. COULD SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THE PROBLEM IS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT HAVE A LARGE WINDOW OVER THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FUEL FOR TROPICAL STORM. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS PLACES IN LOUISIANA AND TEXAS, THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN, EVEN IF THIS NEVER GETS NAMED, IT IS UNLIKELY. BUT IF THIS STAYS OVER THE GULF LONG ENOUGH AND WE DO SEE THIS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM, THE FIRST NAME OF THE SEASON IS ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP YOU UPDATED. THAT IS THE ONLY AREA OF INTEREST AT THIS TIME. TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE HEAT. ANOTHER DAY IN THE 90’S INLAND FOCUS, SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO IF YOU’RE GOING TO BUY THE COAST, IT IS JUST VERY HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. TOMORROW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, LOW TO MID-NINETIES IN CRANKING UP THE HEAT. EVEN MORE SO THURSDAY, FRIDAY. IT’S GONNA BE HARD TO COME BY THE RAIN TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK AND THEN SCATTERED STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE OUTLOOK. SO AT LEAST WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TODAY AT NOT A LOT OF RAIN ON TAFT, DRY CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN HERE COMES THE HEAT THIS AFTERNOON AT LOW 90’S WEST OF I-75. THAT YOU ARE DRY AND THEN INLAND SPOTS. THIS IS WHERE WE’RE AT LEAST GOING TO SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE EVENING. COMMUTE STORM IS CONTINUING TO FIRE OFF NEAR SUNSET AND THEN STORMS WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STICKING WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70’S HARDER TO COME BY THE RAIN EVEN INTO TOMORROW. AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF COAST WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER. CHANCE POSSIBLE. FINALLY GETTING INTO MORE SCATTERED STORMS. BUT IT’S NOT GOING TO BE UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AND EVEN THEN IT IS NOT GOING TO B
Chances for tropical development in the Gulf increase
The disturbance poses no threat to Florida, regardless of development.
Updated: 9:07 AM EDT Jun 15, 2026
Editorial Standards
An area of interest has low chances for tropical development in the Gulf this week. The Gulf Coast Storm Team is closely monitoring disorganized storms over northeastern Mexico. While development isn’t expected over the next 24 hours as the storms remain over land, the disturbance could emerge over the Gulf by Wednesday. As of Monday morning, the latest odds for development have increased to 20 percent over the next two days and 30 percent over the next seven days. Regardless of development, this disturbance poses no threat to Florida. Tropical Impacts Regardless of tropical development, this cluster of showers and storms will bring a heavy rain event to Texas and Louisiana. Some communities could see 5-10″ of rain, bringing a flooding threat as well toward the end of the workweek.If this disturbance strengthens into a tropical storm, the first name of the season is Arthur. This is the only area of interest at this time. However you watch or scroll, we’re committed to delivering your Gulf Coast Weather Most Accurate Forecast, one you can rely on every day, wherever you are.Live Interactive Radar: Track conditions in real time with the Gulf Coast Live Radar.Watch Gulf Coast Weather: Find the latest weather forecast videos, streaming live or on demand, on TV and online.Stream on the Go: Download the free Gulf Coast News app to watch on your phone or tablet.Your Gulf Coast Weather TeamChief Meteorologist Allyson RaeMeteorologist Caroline CastoraMeteorologist Jim DickeyMeteorologist Lauren HopeMeteorologist Raphael TavernierMeteorologist Rob DunsMeteorologist Sara BlueFollow on Social: Follow, like and subscribe to Gulf Coast News on social media to share your tips and be part of the conversation with Southwest Florida’s most experienced, trusted weather team: Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | TikTok | Threads | Bluesky | Nextdoor | XDOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest breaking news and weather alerts. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment and original programming on your TV.
An area of interest has low chances for tropical development in the Gulf this week. The Gulf Coast Storm Team is closely monitoring disorganized storms over northeastern Mexico. While development isn’t expected over the next 24 hours as the storms remain over land, the disturbance could emerge over the Gulf by Wednesday.
As of Monday morning, the latest odds for development have increased to 20 percent over the next two days and 30 percent over the next seven days. Regardless of development, this disturbance poses no threat to Florida.
Tropical Impacts
Regardless of tropical development, this cluster of showers and storms will bring a heavy rain event to Texas and Louisiana. Some communities could see 5-10″ of rain, bringing a flooding threat as well toward the end of the workweek.
If this disturbance strengthens into a tropical storm, the first name of the season is Arthur. This is the only area of interest at this time.
However you watch or scroll, we’re committed to delivering your Gulf Coast Weather Most Accurate Forecast, one you can rely on every day, wherever you are.
Live Interactive Radar: Track conditions in real time with the Gulf Coast Live Radar.
Watch Gulf Coast Weather: Find the latest weather forecast videos, streaming live or on demandon TV and online.
Stream on the Go: Download the free Gulf Coast News app to watch on your phone or tablet.
Your Gulf Coast Weather Team
Follow on Social: Follow, like and subscribe to Gulf Coast News on social media to share your tips and be part of the conversation with Southwest Florida’s most experienced, trusted weather team: Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | TikTok | Threads | Bluesky | Nextdoor | X
DOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest breaking news and weather alerts. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment and original programming on your TV.
