45 days after the start of the war in the Middle East, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is heavily disrupted and the security of this strategic route for global trade remains uncertain.
It is one of the major uncertainties of the ongoing war in the Middle East. Has the Strait of Hormuz been trapped by Tehran? This Thursday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards invited ships to “take alternative routes” to “be protected from possible collisions with mines.” Even this Sunday, Tehran threatened a “deadly vortex,” claiming to “fully control” the area. These statements came after Donald Trump announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a decision made following the failure of negotiations in Pakistan.
This Thursday, Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin stated on BFMTV that she “does not know” if the area has actually been mined by Iran. Even among industry professionals, it is difficult to determine if Iran has actually carried out its threat.
“The ‘dissuasive’ effect of mines”
According to him, one thing is certain: the Iranians are still able to mine the strait even after more than a month of Israeli-American bombings.
“One can drop a mine from a civilian ship using a ramp to drop it into the sea. Their easy installation, wide availability, and low cost are also arguments in the Iranian threat. Especially since the characteristics of a shallow and narrow strait play in favor of Tehran, which would reportedly have up to 6,000 mines according to American intelligence.”
On the other hand, bringing in mine hunters equipped with sonars capable of detecting these mines is currently impossible due to the precarious ceasefire. This ceasefire is set to end on April 22. According to Stéphane Audrand, an independent consultant and reserve officer in the Navy, these operations are carried out “calmly, and not under enemy fire.”
If it is impossible to confirm that the Strait of Hormuz is trapped, mentioning this option alone is enough to “deter.” “Whether there are 0, 10, or 100 mines, the desired effect is achieved,” namely a significant disruption of maritime traffic, as analyzed by Didier Maleterre on BFM Business in mid-March.
“The United States ‘sweep’ the strait, according to Donald Trump”
The threat is taken seriously by Washington, which claims to have started “the process of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.” The U.S. military stated on Saturday that two of its destroyers crossed the maritime corridor as part of “a larger mission to ensure that the strait is fully cleared of marine mines previously laid by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.” This statement was rejected by Tehran, which stated that “the decision regarding the passage of any ship is up to the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
According to Donald Trump, American mine sweepers are currently in the area and “sweeping the strait.”
“Additional American forces, including underwater drones, will join clearing efforts in the coming days,” specified American Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the U.S. Central Command.
Donald Trump stated in an interview with Fox News that the UK “and a few other countries” would send mine-sweeping ships to the strait. France, on the other hand, “does not rule out anything” regarding a possible French participation in mine clearance, according to Catherine Vautrin.
Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday the holding “in the coming days” of a conference “with willing countries to participate in a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring navigation freedom in the strait.” However, such a mission will only be deployed if “the situation allows,” warned the head of state. Today, maritime traffic is largely disrupted in this strategic seaway for global commerce. Over 30 ships weighing over 10,000 tons transited through the strait this past weekend, according to Llyod’s List.
