Will the next war in the Middle East be between Turkey and Israel?

On April 27, 2026, the Israeli presidential plane took an eight-hour detour, flying in a curve through Europe and Russia to avoid Turkey. The destination: Kazakhstan. The reason? Recep Tayyip Erdogan had just denied access to his airspace to President Isaac Herzog. In a statement from March, the Turkish leader declared “Netanyahu surpassed Hitler in barbarism.” Ten days earlier, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had claimed that Turkey was “the new Iran.” Between these two former allies, words of war have replaced diplomacy.

How did we get to this point? The contrast is striking. In 1949, Turkey became the first predominantly Muslim country to recognize the state of Israel. The goal was to align with the Western camp and join NATO, which was achieved in 1951. During the Cold War, Ankara managed to maintain its relations with Tel Aviv while navigating the Arab powers. How? By adopting a cautious neutrality during major conflicts (Suez in 1956, Six-Day War in 1967, Yom Kippur War in 1973). And when Turkey recognized the Palestinian state in 1988, economic relations with Israel did not suffer. The 1990s even marked the golden age of Israeli-Turkish relations.