War in the Middle East: why Donald Trump announces a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, already locked by Iran?

Donald Trump wants to reverse the trend. He announced the imposition of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after the failure of negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend to end the war in the Middle East. “Ships of all nationalities entering or exiting Iranian ports and coastal zones” will be blocked from 4 p.m. this Monday, April 13, according to the threats of the American president. Ships coming from other Gulf countries should, in theory, be able to move freely.

Without detailing the specifics of such an operation, Donald Trump stated on Fox News that the UK “and a few other countries” would send minesweepers. “This mission is difficult to carry out alone and probably not viable in the medium and long term,” said Dana Stroul of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the Guardian.

For what reason apply a blockade to a blocked strait? Indeed, this narrow strategic passage, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas transits, has been under Iranian control since the beginning of the conflict. It was a central point of negotiations and a condition of the fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Washington on Tuesday, April 7. But despite the agreement, few ships are willing to risk crossing the sealed and mined passage by Iran.

According to the Guardian, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was one of the main sticking points in the peace talks. Tehran wants to retain control of the waterway and even impose a passage fee of up to $2 million per ship, conditions rejected by the Americans.

Donald Trump’s announcement of this American naval blockade aims to pressure Iran, especially economically, by depriving it of its oil revenue. Since the start of the war on February 28, Iran has continued to export its own oil in the region through the strait. On average, 1.85 million barrels of crude have been exported per day, about 100,000 barrels more per day than in the previous three months, according to data analysis company Kpler.

The US president wants to suffocate the regime by cutting off its major source of financing for military operations and also to remove Iran’s main negotiating leverage. “There is little reason to think that a blockade would force Iran to surrender,” said Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “In fact, the resilience Iran has shown so far suggests the opposite.”

The gamble seems risky for Donald Trump, facing a potential escalation of the situation. While the chief of the Iranian navy found the threats “ridiculous and amusing,” the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic, threatened to engulf their enemies in a “deadly vortex.”

In addition to the risk of a major military escalation, this blockade could also have a short-term negative effect on global oil prices, depending on “its extent and implementation.” “Tehran’s reaction is also crucial. Iranian and/or Houthi retaliations against alternative routes for Gulf producers could further drive up prices,” said Kevin Book, research director at ClearView Energy Partners, in the Guardian.

The president’s threat has already plunged global markets into a new period of uncertainty. The price of oil began the week above the symbolic $100 mark, jumping more than 7% for Brent, the global benchmark, and over 8% for WTI, the American reference, by 6 a.m.

Faced with this paradox, Donald Trump, who has little support in his war against Iran, is being criticized from all sides. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he does not support the blockade, while Spain’s Defense Minister Margarita Robles criticized a measure that “makes no sense.” “This is just another episode in this downhill spiral we’ve been led into.”