Between military tensions in the Middle East and economic warfare among major powers, a clear pattern emerges: controlling strategic dependencies becomes the central issue of the 21st century. Tensions over access to rare resources often lead to conflicts.
The Strait of Hormuz, a testing ground for energy power
The sudden surge in tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz highlights how contemporary geopolitics is driven by the mastery of vital flows. The seizure of an Iranian ship by the US Navy sparked an immediate escalation, with Tehran threatening retaliation as diplomatic negotiations falter. Markets reacted swiftly: Brent crude prices jumped by about 5%, nearing $95 per barrel, while European stock markets fell due to energy-related uncertainty. In this region where nearly a third of the world’s oil is transported by sea, the Iranian strategy is not just military but also aimed at disrupting a key point in global trade. International relations history shows that these strategic passages, such as the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca, and the Strait of Hormuz, act as force multipliers. A relatively weak actor can create a disproportionate systemic effect. Iran understands this well: even without a military victory, the mere threat to energy traffic allows it to influence the strategic calculations of Washington, Europe, and China. This logic echoes the analyses of American historian Alfred Thayer Mahan on maritime power: controlling or disrupting trade routes remains one of the most effective forms of strategic projection.
The invisible economic warfare: the weapon of supply chains
But the real geopolitical transformation is no longer just in straits or seas; it has shifted to industrial supply chains. China has grasped this concept by strengthening its controls over exports of rare earths and critical minerals, essential for batteries, semiconductors, and green technologies. European companies based in China now raise concerns about administrative procedures that could halt the export of essential components. This strategy is part of a broader transformation of globalization: the economy is no longer just a space for trade but has become a strategic rivalry arena. For years, Washington has used financial sanctions and technological restrictions against Beijing. China’s response is to leverage its structural advantage in certain critical raw materials. This aligns with what economist Albert Hirschman wrote in the 1940s: commercial relationships can create asymmetrical dependencies that become instruments of power. In the case of rare earths, the asymmetry is stark: China largely dominates global production and refining. For Europe, the situation is particularly delicate. The European Union remains heavily dependent on the Chinese industry while facing a growing trade deficit with Beijing, fueling political debates on deindustrialization and economic sovereignty.
Toward a geopolitics of strategic dependencies
These two crises, energy in the Middle East and industrial in Asia, reveal a deeper shift in the international order. Power is now measured not just in military divisions or nuclear arsenals but in the ability to control the structural dependencies of the global system. Economist Henry Farrell and political scientist Abraham Newman speak of “weaponized interdependence”: global economic networks are becoming tools of political coercion. The United States uses the dollar and financial systems to impose sanctions; China mobilizes its industrial chains; regional powers like Iran exploit their geographical position in energy flows. This evolution puts Europe in a paradoxical position. The continent remains one of the world’s largest commercial powers, but it controls few of the infrastructures or strategic resources that shape globalization. Its energy, industrial, and technological dependence exposes it to multiple pressures. This is why Brussels is now pursuing policies of “strategic sovereignty”: energy diversification, industrial reshoring, strategies on critical materials. But these policies face a fundamental reality: globalization has created a system of deeply intertwined dependencies that are extremely challenging to dismantle without major economic costs. The world is entering a new phase of systemic competition where open conflicts, like those around the Strait of Hormuz, are just the visible surface of a deeper rivalry for control over the invisible infrastructures of power.
