Employment perspectives minimally affected by war in Iran

Zurich (awp) – Job prospects for Swiss companies are not deteriorating, despite the conflict in the Middle East and the rise in oil and gas prices, according to the KOF Institute.

In the second quarter of 2026, the KOF employment indicator stands at 2.2 points, compared to 2.1 points in the first quarter of 2026, as reported by the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (EPFZ) in a periodic update on Monday. This barometer is based on responses from around 4200 companies surveyed by KOF in April.

The current value suggests a moderate evolution in the Swiss labor market during the current and upcoming quarters, despite increased geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices.

The employment outlook indicator for the next three months remains unchanged at 2.9 points. The proportion of companies expecting to increase their workforce in the coming months remains higher than those anticipating staff reductions.

Improvement in wholesale trade and manufacturing

Despite rising energy prices and global tensions in supply chains, job prospects in wholesale trade have significantly improved, from -12.1 to -3.7 points.

In manufacturing as well, the recovery continues: the sector indicator has moved from -8.6 to -5.5 points compared to the previous quarter. However, these two sectors remain in negative territory.

Conversely, job prospects have slightly dimmed in the hospitality industry, retail trade, and other services. The employment indicator in construction remains at a high level, at 10.7 points.

Revision downward

It should be noted that the value for the first quarter was revised downward, from 2.4 to 2.1 points, after additional information from companies surveyed in February and March. This could be linked to the start of the war in Iran at the end of February.

However, the indicator remains slightly above its long-term average of 1.7 points and has rebounded after temporarily entering negative territory in the third quarter of 2025.

cw/ck