The world will consume less oil by 2025: Middle East war hits harder than Covid

Six years after the global health paralysis, the world is headed for a second consecutive annual decline in its oil consumption. This time, it is not a virus but a war that is causing it. The International Energy Agency (IEA) describes the situation as the “most severe oil supply shock in history” in its monthly report published on Tuesday, April 15.

Global demand is expected to fall to 104.26 million barrels per day in 2026, down from 104.34 mb/d in 2025 – a decrease of 80,000 barrels per day where an increase of 730,000 was still expected a month ago.

A strait that strangles the world

The trigger: attacks on the energy infrastructure in the Gulf and disruptions in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the main chokepoint for global oil exports. Global production fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, dropping to 97.05 mb/d.

The second quarter is expected to be the worst of all, with a drop of 1.5 mb/d anticipated – the largest since the lockdowns of 2020. The IEA points to Asian petrochemical refineries short on raw materials, airlines canceling flights, and a growing list of countries forced to impose energy-saving measures.

The agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, warned on Monday that April “should be even worse than March,” even in the event of a quick resolution to the conflict.

Moscow the sole winner

Amid this dark picture, one power is benefiting from the crisis: Russia. Its oil export revenues doubled between February and March, rising from $9.7 to $19 billion. The surge in prices contributes to this, as well as increased volumes to India – made possible by the partial lifting of U.S. sanctions on certain shipments.

The IEA’s base scenario anticipates a partial recovery of Middle Eastern shipments by mid-2026. But it admits that this assumption could prove to be “too optimistic” and envisions an alternative scenario of prolonged conflict, which could lead to “major disruptions in the months to come.”