The standoff between Trump and Iran

President Donald Trump has always considered himself a top-notch negotiator, but he seems to have hit a roadblock with Iran, as his tough talk, threats, and even military actions have failed to budge Tehran from its long-standing positions.

With the shifting goals of the Trump administration, it becomes difficult to assess the progress of American efforts. Mr. Trump and his top advisers have insisted that the United States had already won the war and that the Islamic Republic was ready to conclude an agreement following an uptick in American threats during the fragile ceasefire.

But Mr. Trump backtracked once again, stating on Monday that he had suspended plans for an imminent resumption of attacks at the request of Gulf Arab states, because “serious negotiations are taking place, and, according to them, as great leaders and allies, a deal will be reached that will be entirely acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Middle Eastern countries.”

Although he said he had canceled the planned strikes for Tuesday, Mr. Trump continued to boast, claiming to have told military leaders to “be ready to launch a full and comprehensive large-scale attack on Iran at any time, in case an acceptable agreement is not reached.” President Trump has set deadlines for Tehran multiple times, only to backtrack.

Despite growing internal unrest, a struggling economy, and the deaths of numerous leaders, there is no indication that Iran is ready to meet Donald Trump’s demands. In fact, Iran has remained firm in its positions, preventing the realization of Mr. Trump’s key objectives: Iran has still not agreed to abandon its nuclear program or the development of its ballistic missiles, nor to cease supporting its allies in the region, including those in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

On Monday, the White House defended the president’s approach, stating that “Mr. Trump always prioritizes peace and diplomacy,” but he will only accept an agreement that puts America first. “President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” said spokesperson Olivia Wales in a statement to the Associated Press.

The leverage of the Strait of Hormuz

Notably, Iran still exerts significant control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea passage for global oil supply, while the U.S. military has imposed its own blockade on Iranian ports. The sharp fluctuations in the global energy market that followed have raised gasoline prices, penalizing American consumers and potentially creating problems for Donald Trump’s Republican Party as the midterm elections approach in November.

Mr. Trump’s strategy of increasing pressure – both economic and military – to bend foreign governments to his will does not work in Iran as it did in Venezuela, Cuba, and elsewhere. The tanker blockades brought these two countries to their knees, and the Trump administration quickly ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, but it does not have as effective a card as Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.

As the cost of war with Iran rises for Americans, Mr. Trump’s popularity rating on the economy has plummeted, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted last month, with Republicans themselves losing faith in his leadership.

Despite all of Donald Trump’s rhetoric, Iran has not been willing to accept restrictions on its policies beyond what it agreed to during the negotiations on the nuclear agreement with world powers under the Obama administration. Mr. Trump described this agreement as the “worst ever negotiated” by the United States and withdrew from it in his first term in 2018.

Since a fragile truce came into effect last month, Mr. Trump has criticized the slow progress of negotiations towards a permanent agreement.

“For Iran, time is running out, and they better hurry, FAST, or there will be nothing left of them,” supported Mr. Trump on social media, Sunday, shortly after a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Iranian response was swift: “Our armed forces have their finger on the trigger, while diplomacy continues,” signaled Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader, on state television.

The conflict in a “standstill”

Ali Vaez, director for Iran at the International Crisis Group, who has witnessed years of fruitless diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, emphasized that these longtime adversaries do not see themselves as defeated by the conflict.

“Since the ceasefire came into effect, Washington and Tehran seem to be assuming that time is on their side: each believes that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing costs for the other camp, while providing them with a respite to prepare for a potential resumption of hostilities,” said Mr. Vaez.

Despite the impact of the American economic pressure campaign, Iranian officials have not reached the threshold of tolerance “to accept what they perceive as capitulatory demands,” he added.

David Schenker, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Middle East in the first Trump administration and currently at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described the current situation as an “impasse.”

He indicated that Mr. Trump likely had “reluctances” to the idea of returning to a total military conflict, notably due to the fears of Gulf Arab countries facing Iranian retaliations and the volatility of energy markets, with its political implications in the United States.

Rich Goldberg, a former official on the National Security Council during both of Mr. Trump’s terms, who now works for the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasized that Mr. Trump was still acting from a position of strength, including regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Mr. Goldberg, who is particularly interested in American energy dominance, stated that while the reopening of the strait would relieve the “pain at the pump” felt by many Americans, it was not crucial.

“Short-term pain at the pump diverts people’s attention from U.S. global energy dominance,” he argued. “This is not a permanent crisis.”

Matthew Lee and Farnoush Amiri, The Associated Press