Conflict in the Middle East: A Determining Factor for the Global Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently declared that the outlook for the global economy is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the unpredictable evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In its latest report on the World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts that if the conflict extends for a few more weeks before stabilizing markets by mid-year, global economic growth this year will be 3.1%, lower than the 3.3% projected in the previous report. While the impact until 2026 is not considered significant, the IMF warns that, in the worst-case scenario, growth could drop by as much as 1.3 percentage points, risking a recession.

Bloomberg Forecasts a Rebound in Chinese Economic Growth in the First Quarter of 2026: The Chinese economy is expected to bounce back in the first quarter of 2026, giving policymakers more time to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict before considering stimulus measures. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by 4.8% annually. In this case, the growth rate would surpass the 4.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, the lowest since the economy reopened after the pandemic ended in late 2022.

On April 20, the United States began repaying $166 billion in illegal customs duties: These are duties that the U.S. Supreme Court declared illegal last February. In a document filed with the Court on April 14, the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) indicated that it had completed the first phase of its CAPE refund system. Instead of processing refunds for each shipment individually, the system consolidates customs duties so that importers receive a single payment, including any applicable interest.

South Korea Emerges as a Global Leader in Artificial Intelligence: According to the “AI Index 2026” report from Stanford University, South Korea ranks third globally in the number of outstanding artificial intelligence (AI) models published in 2025, behind the United States and China, with five exceptional models. Additionally, South Korea maintains the top spot worldwide in AI patents per capita for the second consecutive year. The application of AI in manufacturing and industry is also increasing, with a deployment rate that has significantly accelerated in the second half of 2025.

Sharp Increase in Chinese Aluminum Exports Due to the Conflict in the Middle East: Chinese aluminum exports are expected to see a significant increase in the coming months as consumers seek alternative sources to offset disruptions in the Persian Gulf region. Currently, the price gap between international aluminum and Chinese aluminum is at its highest level since 2022. This situation presents significant opportunities for Chinese smelters, especially as domestic aluminum stocks have just reached their highest level in six years.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/diem-tin-kinh-te-the-gioi-noi-bat-ngay-1542026-20260415203850302.htm