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Russian Strategy in the Middle East Pays Off
By Giuseppe Gagliano, President of Centro Studi Strategici Carlo De Cristoforis (Como, Italy)
The true winner of the Middle Eastern confrontation is not the one in the spotlight
While international attention is focused on the axis formed by the United States, Israel, and Iran, the most significant fact may go virtually unnoticed. The biggest beneficiary of this new phase of tensions is not one of the direct protagonists of the crisis but Russia. Once again, Moscow is reaping the strategic, economic, and geopolitical benefits of the chaos created by others.
The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the surge in energy prices, and the fear of an expanding conflict have had an immediate effect: oil has once again become not just a commodity, but a weapon of power. And when oil becomes a power, Russia inevitably returns to the center stage. The projected revenues for April, amounting to $9 billion compared to $4.2 billion in March, speak volumes about what is actually happening: in just one month, Russian oil revenues have nearly doubled.
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Sanctions face the reality wall
For over two years, the West has crafted a narrative of a Russia on the brink of collapse, strangled by sanctions, isolated from markets, gradually reduced to economic impotence. But reality, as often is the case, has proved the propaganda wrong. Moscow not only dodged being expelled from the global energy system but also demonstrated its ability to transform pressure into leverage for adaptation and reinforcement.
The Middle East crisis reveals the fragility of Western sanctions. When markets ignite, systemic risk grows, and energy prices threaten to overwhelm debt-ridden and inflation-burdened economies, political principles give way to material necessities. Thus, to avoid a global crisis, Washington must partially ease the pressure. This is significant as it confirms a fundamental fact: it is no longer sanctions dictating events but the real availability of resources.
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Putin and strategic patience
Vladimir Putin showcases the consistency of a strategy based on endurance, resilience, and the centrality of raw materials. Instead of seeking international approval, the Kremlin has invested in building economic resilience capable of absorbing shocks while waiting for adversaries to encounter the limitations of their own choices. And that is precisely what is unfolding.
Russia understood before many others that the world cannot be governed by finance, sanctions, or technological superiority alone. At the core of power lie energy, logistics corridors, natural resources, and the ability to guarantee supplies in times of crisis. This is where Moscow retains its influence, and where the West realizes it cannot easily replace it.
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An economic victory turning into geopolitics
The increase in oil revenues is not merely an accounting success; it is a geopolitical victory. Every additional dollar earned by Russia translates into increased capacity to support its international projection, fuel public spending, strengthen ties with Asian partners, and enhance autonomy from the West. It is not just money; it is strategic freedom.
In this light, the Hormuz crisis acts as a multiplier for Russian power. The more the Middle East becomes tense, the more the global energy market seeks stability. And as this quest intensifies, Russia regains its centrality. The paradox is clear: those who sought to fold Moscow now find themselves facing its indispensable return.
Who truly commands
The decisive question now is not whether sanctions are just or unjust. The real question is: who actually controls the global game? The powers imposing economic punishments or those holding the resources without which the system falters?
The answer, at least at this stage, appears brutally clear. Moral and political grand declarations crumble against the concrete reality of energy needs. Advanced economies can strike, threaten, isolate, but if they do not control the real sources of power, they remain vulnerable. Moscow understands this, which is why it emerges as the silent yet pivotal guest of every crisis: less visible than others, yet often more decisive than all.
The decline of the Western narrative
This is how the grand Western narrative of Russian isolation fractures. Not because Moscow has definitively won, but because each day the real world reminds us that strength is not solely measured in diplomatic alliances or packages of sanctions. It lies in the capability to remain indispensable. And whether we like it or not, Russia remains indispensable.
The point is not to celebrate Moscow but to grasp that the international order still hinges on the geography of resources, not ideological illusions. As long as oil, gas, and raw materials continue to shape the deep power dynamics, those who control them will always have a decisive advantage. And that is precisely where Russia, once again, demonstrates a better understanding of the world than its adversaries.
