It’s crunch time for Monroe. The 17-year-old singer will represent France on Saturday, May 16, in Vienna, during the final of the 70th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. After getting a glimpse of the French artist’s full staging during the second semi-final, Eurovision fans learned on Friday about her performance order.
Monroe will take the stage in 15th position (out of 25 participants), in the second half of the evening, with an estimated performance time of 10:28 p.m. This information was eagerly awaited by some Eurofans, who believe that a favorable placement in the lineup significantly increases the chances of winning.
A widely held theory suggests that the second half of the evening is more advantageous because the later a performance, the more likely viewers are to remember it when voting.
Several French examples seem to confirm this Eurovision theory. Barbara Pravi ranked 2nd in 2021 after singing in 20th position, while Slimane came 4th in 2024 after performing in the penultimate spot. Following this theory, Monroe’s 15th place in the second half of the evening gives the French singer, now 9th in the bookmakers’ ranking, a chance to capture public attention.
However, the belief that a good position is towards the end of the show has its limits, according to Benoît Blaszczyk, president of the French Eurofans. He points to instances like last year’s Austrian winner, JJ, who was in 9th place and highlights that this year, “for the first time, the votes are open from the beginning of the show,” reducing the impact of the performance order.
Against this backdrop, what can be inferred from Monroe’s 15th position? Journalist and Eurovision specialist Fabien Randanne notes the importance of the countries surrounding France in the lineup. The French candidate “can to some extent benefit from the contrast with the United Kingdom [14th] and Moldova [16th].”
Monroe’s lyrical and vocally strong song stands out from the British and Moldovan entries, reflecting a deliberate choice by the French producers, who had the discretion to select her spot, unlike other countries. This rule, in place for the past two years, aims to prevent consecutive similar songs.
While it remains uncertain whether France’s 15th place will help win the competition, for other countries, the impact of the ranking is clearer. Some, like Denmark and Greece, may face challenges due to their early positions, while Finland, the favorites among bettors, enjoy a strategic position for televoting success.
